FX Risk

Risk Management

Turkish: Kur Riski

Short definition

FX risk is the way a change in exchange rates disturbs cash, profit or equity value. It comes from open positions, tenor and currency mismatch — not from a view that the rate is “high” or “low”.

Detailed explanation

Three layers: transaction (collections/payments), translation (consolidation) and economic (competition/price). The CFO’s cash risk is transactions and maturing debt; translation profit is not cash.

A natural hedge (FX revenue versus FX costs and debt) shrinks the open book. Residual risk is managed with forwards, options or tenor matching. REER corrects a view stuck on one pair.

Why it matters for the CFO

In Türkiye, USD/TRY and EUR/TRY move price, inventory and debt service together. Open FX debt can break DSCR while EBITDA still looks solid.

How to read it

The position table is FX assets minus FX liabilities, by tenor and currency. A single “dollar gap” line hides tenor mismatch. There is no universal hedge ratio.

Related calculators

Güven Sayılgan’s writing on this topic

Read these first

What to learn next

  1. Currency Exposure
  2. Open Position
  3. Hedging
  4. Natural Hedge
  5. Transaction Risk

Definitions are educational. They are not investment, credit or tax advice.