When Do Firms in Türkiye Experience Cash Squeezes Most Often?

Explaining firms’ cash squeezes in Türkiye by looking only at tax payment dates is incomplete. What really matters is the level of interest rates, banks’ appetite to lend, exchange-rate movements, inventory costs, customers’ payment terms, and the pace of sales in the market. For this reason, rather than saying cash squeezes “appear in the same month every year”, it is more useful to monitor which market conditions widen the cash shortfall.

In the first months of the year, wages, rents, service contracts, raw-material prices, and many commercial agreements move to new price levels. The business may need more lira even to hold the same amount of stock and achieve the same sales volume.

Even if inflation is falling, working-capital needs may not shrink. As long as the price level keeps rising, financing inventories and trade receivables requires larger amounts of funding. For example, if a trading cycle that previously required 20 million lira now needs 25 million, the company may face a cash squeeze while nominal sales rise. That is why credit needs at the start of the year should be calculated not from last year’s turnover but from working-capital requirements at the new price level.

When demand in the economy slows, firms’ first reflex is usually to focus on lost sales. Yet from a cash perspective the more dangerous development is customers beginning to extend payment terms. In Türkiye, as of May 2026, total trade sales volume fell 1.4 percent year on year while retail sales volume rose 13.7 percent. This divergence shows that the market does not move at the same pace across all sectors. Even if a company’s net sales are unchanged, average collection time rising from 60 to 90 days can create serious financing needs. For this reason the CFO should focus not only on the sales budget but also on preparing and monitoring the receivables ageing table.

Commercial loan rates in Türkiye still impose a high financing cost on businesses. In the CBRT’s latest weekly data, lira commercial loan rates are running above about 55 percent. (14 August 2026) In this environment, the approach of “we’ll use credit for a few months” becomes expensive. Especially in companies with low operating profit margins, financing expense can consume a large share of trading profit. In high-interest periods, therefore, managing working capital comes to the fore ahead of finding new credit. Cutting slow-moving inventory, speeding collections by a few days, or extending supplier terms can sometimes be more valuable than drawing new loans.

Sharp exchange-rate moves can change cash needs within a few weeks, especially for businesses using imported raw materials or products. Even if the same quantity is imported, the lira equivalent rises; letter-of-credit, advance payment, and inventory financing needs increase. A more important risk is companies holding excess stock in expectation of further currency appreciation. The idea of “let’s buy before prices rise further” may look commercially reasonable but can tie up cash in inventory. In volatile FX periods, therefore, purchasing decisions should be based not only on expected price increases but also on how long stock remains tied up in cash terms.

In late March, June, September, and especially December, firms’ loan, trade-payable, and public-sector payments may cluster in the same periods. The CBRT also notes that payment periods for commercial and public debt at quarter-ends can generate heavy credit demand. For this reason, companies should not enter quarter-end having fully used their available credit limits. Unused bank limits provide liquidity flexibility as important as cash on hand.

The most useful approach is not an annual cash budget but a rolling 13-week cash budget. In addition, each week the CFO should track the direction of five indicators: collection period, days in inventory, supplier terms, available bank limits, and the FX position for the next 30–60 days.

Cash management is not the job of finding finance when money runs out. It is the ability to see in advance through which channel and how many weeks later a deterioration in market conditions will affect the company’s cash position.