Credit Risk

Risk Management

Turkish: Kredi Riski

Short definition

Credit risk is expected loss if the obligor does not pay in full on time. Expected loss ≈ exposure × PD × (1 − recovery). Receivables, guarantees and unfunded lines sit in the same family.

Detailed explanation

Customer credit is run with ageing, limits and collateral. Concentration makes sector and intra-group PDs move together. Factoring transfers risk or turns it into collateral — the contract says whose PD you still hold.

Your own credit risk is the bank’s view of your PD and collateral; spread and covenants are born there. Ratings and CDS are market proxies; when they diverge, ask which one is telling a cash story.

Why it matters for the CFO

A falling DSO can be collections — or more risky dated sales. A provision is accounting for expected loss; a limit cuts the loss before it is born.

How to read it

The ageing tail is a crude PD indicator; collateral and enforcement move recovery. There is no universal “days until bad” rule.

Related calculators

Güven Sayılgan’s writing on this topic

What to learn next

  1. Probability of Default (PD)
  2. Recovery Rate
  3. Trade Receivables
  4. Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)
  5. Counterparty Risk

Definitions are educational. They are not investment, credit or tax advice.