Sensitivity Analysis

Valuation

Turkish: Duyarlılık Analizi

Short definition

Sensitivity analysis measures how one or two inputs move value, NPV or a ratio. It does not delete uncertainty; it shows which assumption turns the decision.

Detailed explanation

A tornado ranks one-at-a-time moves; a matrix is a two-way NPV table (WACC × growth). Monte Carlo assumes distributions; a bad input distribution misleads the output.

Uncorrelated shocks may be unrealistic (sales down and margin down together). The CFO also shows jointly moving shocks.

Why it matters for the CFO

Committee buys the breaking assumptions, not a point EV. The most sensitive input wants a hedge or more due diligence.

How to read it

If WACC ±1 point moves EV 15%, the valuation hangs on the discount assumption — a diagnosis.

Related calculators

Güven Sayılgan’s writing on this topic

Read these first

DCF

What to learn next

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
  2. Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
  3. Terminal Value (TV)
  4. Net Present Value (NPV)
  5. Hurdle Rate

Definitions are educational. They are not investment, credit or tax advice.