Gordon Growth Model

Valuation

Turkish: Gordon Büyüme Modeli

Short definition

The Gordon model values a cash flow growing at a constant rate forever as C_1/(r−g). g should not exceed the economy’s nominal growth cap and must sit below r.

Detailed explanation

The assumption: margin, ROIC and reinvestment are consistent in perpetuity. g = ROIC × reinvestment. When ROIC = WACC, growth does not create value; a high g is not optimism by itself.

In high inflation g is nominal. In a real DCF g is real. Mixing them explodes TV.

Why it matters for the CFO

g is the most sensitive terminal input. One point of g often moves EV more than explicit-period cash.

How it is calculated

P_0 = C_1 / (r − g) (DCF terminal: FCFF_{n+1} / (WACC − g))

Variables in the formula

  • g: Constant perpetual growth rate
  • r: Discount rate (WACC or Ke)

How to read it

As g → r, TV → ∞. That is where the model breaks, not “high value”.

Numerical example

FCFF_1 40 mn TL, r 18%, g 4% → value = 40 / 0.14 ≈ 286 mn TL.

Related calculators

Güven Sayılgan’s writing on this topic

Read these first

What to learn next

  1. Terminal Value (TV)
  2. Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
  3. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
  4. Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF)

Definitions are educational. They are not investment, credit or tax advice.