Debt Sustainability

Debt

Turkish: Borç Sürdürülebilirliği

Short definition

Debt sustainability is whether debt can be carried without exploding, given rates, growth, primary cash surplus and tenor. A green single-period DSCR is not sustainability; it is a path.

Detailed explanation

A simple dynamic: the change in net debt ≈ interest − primary cash surplus (FCF-like) − inflation/FX effects. If interest exceeds the surplus, the stock grows. High real rates and low growth deteriorate ratios on their own.

Sustainability is tested under stress (sales, margin, rates, FX, the wall). There is no single “sustainable leverage” number; cash-flow stability and whether the refinancing window is open set it.

Why it matters for the CFO

Dividends and investment at unsustainable leverage are a transfer from equity. Banks and ratings read this path forward, not last LTM multiple.

How to read it

DSCR > 1 and leverage falling is a sustainability candidate. DSCR > 1 with a wall and negative FCF is cosmetic sustainability.

Related calculators

Güven Sayılgan’s writing on this topic

Read these first

What to learn next

  1. Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR)
  2. Debt Capacity
  3. Net Debt / EBITDA
  4. Refinancing Risk
  5. Interest Coverage Ratio (ICR)

Definitions are educational. They are not investment, credit or tax advice.