Macroeconomics and the CFO

Part of a Turkish firm’s financing cost is set in Ankara; another part is, in practice, determined in New York and, increasingly, in Tokyo. Developments in 2026 lend support to this observation.

The “equilibrium” (equilibrium exchange rate) level cannot be pinned down from a single indicator or theory alone. When EBA, PPP and REER approaches are assessed together, the weighted estimate for 25 August 2026 is approximately 61.67 TRY/USD.

It is not possible to say whether a country’s exchange rate is “high” or “low” by looking at the nominal rate. Nominal levels reflect past inflation, currency reforms, the price level and the exchange-rate regime, among other factors.

Global commodity and energy prices are external variables that affect production cost, gross margin, inventory policy, working capital and cash flow; the CFO should monitor them together with currency risk and through their effect on profitability.

The current account balance and foreign trade data are core macro indicators that can affect financing costs, exchange rates, sales volumes, input costs and cash flows; for the CFO they provide leading signals of currency, liquidity and funding risk.

The need for investment and financing is shaped by the economic environment; GDP growth, the industrial production index and manufacturing capacity utilization are three core macro indicators that should be read together.

CPI, domestic PPI and inflation expectations are a common input to many corporate decisions, from selling prices to borrowing costs; read together they help separate nominal growth from real performance.

While the nominal exchange rate shows the TRY equivalent of a given currency, the REER allows monitoring the real value of the lira by accounting for Türkiye's external trade structure and relative price levels.

For companies operating in Türkiye, USD/TRY, EUR/TRY and the real effective exchange rate are complementary indicators; the CFO should read them together for cost, debt, cash flow and competitiveness.

When reading the interest-rate environment, the CFO should assess the CBRT policy rate, commercial loan rates and bank credit conditions together—the price of money, actual borrowing cost and access to finance must be judged as a whole.

Eleven macro indicators the CFO should monitor are read through a football metaphor; policy rates, credit conditions, FX, inflation, growth, production, external balance and commodity prices are linked to cash-flow decisions.

Eleven micro indicators the CFO should monitor are read through a football metaphor; growth, margins, cash, capital efficiency, liquidity, debt and forecast accuracy are assessed together as a pitch formation.

Using the head-coach metaphor, this article reads micro and macro indicators together to explain the balance between cash flow, budgeting, risk management and company value.